Black people account for an estimated:
20% of recreational drug users
50% of possession arrests.
What is the ratio of arrest risks between Black people and others?
The rapid MMV test gives a positive result:
100% of the time for people with the virus
5% of the time for people without the virus
The population
has a prevalence of 1%
is tested at random
What is the probability that a person with a positive test has MMV?
Ratio of “evidence” for different hypotheses
For a dichotomous (yes/no) question, a Bayes factor is an odds ratios
They combine multiplicatively
Odds are cool
A lot of mechanisms involve multiplicative changes on the odds scale
