• in R: glm(), model specification as before: glm(y~f1+x1+f2+x2, data=..., family=..., ...)
• definition: family/link function

• family: what kind of data do I have?
  • from first principles: family specifies the relationship between the mean and variance
  • family=binomial: proportions, out of a total number of counts; includes binary (Bernoulli) (“logistic regression”)
  • family=poisson: Poisson (independent counts, no set maximum, or far from the maximum)
  • other (Normal ("gaussian"), Gamma)
• default family for glm is Gaussian

• on what scale are the relationship(s) between predictor(s) and response linear?
• link function goes from data scale (counts, proportions etc.) to effect or link or linear predictor scale
  • Poisson=log; binomial=logit
• inverse link function goes from effect scale to data scale
  • Poisson=exponential; binomial=logistic
• each family has a default “canonical” link (sensible + nice math)
  • default usually OK (except: use family=Gamma(link="log"))

• “linear predictor” \(\eta = \beta_0 + \beta_1 x_1 + \ldots\) describes patterns on the link scale
• Fit doesn’t transform the responses: instead applies inverse link function to the linear predictor
  • instead of \(\log(y) \sim x\), we analyze \(y \sim \mathrm{Poisson}(\exp(x))\)
• this is good, because the observed value of \(y\) might be zero
  • e.g. count (Poisson) phenotype vs. temperature (centered at 20 C)
  • with \(\beta=\{1,1\}\), \(T=15\), \(\textrm{counts} \sim \textrm{Poisson}(\lambda=\exp(-4)=0.018)\)

Model setup is the same as linear models

• categorical vs. continuous predictors
• contrasts
• interactions
• multivariable regression vs ANOVA vs ANCOVA vs …

but the linear relationship is set up on the link scale

• harder than linear models: plot is still somewhat useful
• binary data especially hard
• goodness of fit tests, \(R^2\) etc. hard (can always compute cor(observed,predict(model, type="response")))
• residuals are Pearson residuals by default [(obs-exp)/sqrt(V(exp))]
• predicted values on the effect scale by default: use type="response" to back-transform
• performance::check_model(), DHARMa package are OK (simulateResiduals(model,plot=TRUE))

• too much variance: (residual deviance)/(residual df) should be \(\approx 1\). (Ratio >1.2 worrisome; ratio>3, v. worrisome (check your model & data!)
• quasi-likelihood models (e.g. family=quasipoisson); fit, then adjust CIs/p-values
• alternatives:
  • Poisson \(\to\) negative binomial (MASS::glm.nb)
  • binomial \(\to\) beta-binomial (glmmTMB package)
• overdispersion not relevant for
  • binary responses
  • families with estimated scale parameters (Gaussian, Gamma, NB, …)
  • models that already account for it (NB, quasi-likelihood)

• as with linear models (change in response per change in input)
• but on link scale
• log link: proportional for small \(\beta\), changes
  • e.g. \(\beta=0.01 \to\) “\(\approx\) 1% change per unit change in input”
  • \(\beta=3 \to\) “\((e^3) \approx\) 20-fold change per change in input”

• log odds
• odds = \(p/(1-p)\) (1% probability is 1:99; 50% = 1:1)
• effect of 1 unit change = multiply by odds ratio (neutral=1)
• … or add log-odds = logit (neutral=0)

• effect on the prob scale depends on baseline probability
  • low baseline prob: like log link
  • high baseline prob: prop. change in (1-prob)
  • medium prob: absolute change \(\approx \beta/4\)
  • e.g. going from log-odds of 0 to 1; estimated \(\Delta\) prob \(\approx\) 0.25
    • plogis(0)= 0.5
    • plogis(0+1)= 0.73
• also see UCLA FAQ on odds ratios; read Gelman and Hill’s Applied Regression Modeling book (p. 81; Google books link)

• Wald \(Z\) tests (i.e., results of summary()), confidence intervals
  • approximate, can be way off if parameters have extreme values (complete separation)
  • asymptotic (finite-size correction/“degrees of freedom” are hard, usually ignored)
• likelihood ratio tests (equivalent to \(F\) tests); drop1(model,test="Chisq"), anova(model1,model2)), profile confidence intervals (MASS::confint.glm)
• AIC etc.

• formula like lm
• specify family (variance-mean), link (nonlinearity)
• always do Poisson, binomial regression on counts, never proportions (although can specify response as a proportion if you also give \(N\) as the weights argument)
  • Use offsets to address unequal sampling
• always check for overdispersion if necessary (Poisson/binomial \(N>1\))
• if you want to quote values on the original scale, confidence intervals need to be back-transformed; never back-transform standard errors alone

• for Poisson, Bernoulli (0/1) responses we only need one piece of information
• how do we specify denominator (\(N\) in \(k/N\))?
• traditional R: response is two-column matrix cbind(successes,failures) [not cbind(successes,total)]
• also allowed: response is proportion (\(k/N\)), also specify weights=N
  (if equal for all cases and specified on the fly need to replicate:
  glm(p~...,data,weights=rep(N,nrow(data))))

• constant terms added to a model
• what if we want to model densities rather than counts?
• log-link (Poisson/NB) models: \(\mu_0 = \exp(\beta_0 + \beta_1 x_1 + ...)\)
• if we know the area then we want \(\mu = A \cdot \mu_0\)
• equivalent to adding \(\log(A)\) to the linear predictor (\(\exp(\log(\mu_0) + \log(A)) = \mu_0 \cdot A\))
• use ... + offset(log(A)) in R formula
• for survival/event modeling over different periods of time, a similar offset trick works with link="cloglog" (see here)

• ggplot2
  • geom_smooth(method="glm", method.args=list(family=...))
• dotwhisker, emmeans, effects, sjPlot
  • need to interpret parameters appropriately
  • means may be computed on link or response scale

• complete separation
• ordinal data
• zero-inflation
• non-standard link functions
• visualization (hard because of overlaps: try stat_sum, position="jitter", geom_dotplot, (beeswarm plot)
• see also: GLM extensions talk (source)

• neglecting overdispersion
• binomial/Poisson models with non-integer data
• equating negative binomial with binomial rather than Poisson
• failing to specify family (\(\to\) linear model); using glm() for linear models (unnecessary)
• predictions on effect scale
• using \((k,N)\) rather than \((k,N-k)\) in binomial models
• worrying about overdispersion unnecessarily (binary/Gamma)
• back-transforming SEs rather than CIs
• Poisson for underdispersed responses
• ignoring random effects

data here

aids <- read.csv("../data/aids.csv")
aids <- transform(aids, date=year+(quarter-1)/4)
gg0 <- ggplot(aids,aes(date,cases))+geom_point()

gg1 <- gg0 + geom_smooth(method="glm",colour="red",
                         formula=y~x,
                         method.args=list(family="quasipoisson"))

g1 <- glm(cases~date, data = aids, family=quasipoisson(link="log"))
summary(g1)

acf(residuals(g1)) ## check autocorrelation

library(DHARMa)
g0 <- update(g1, family=poisson)
plot(simulateResiduals(g0))

print(gg2 <- gg1+geom_smooth(method="glm",formula=y~poly(x,2),
                             method.args=list(family="quasipoisson")))

(see here, here for information on poly())

g2 <- update(g1,.~poly(date,2))

acf(residuals(g2)) ## check autocorrelation

summary(g2)

## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cases ~ poly(date, 2), family = quasipoisson(link = "log"), 
##     data = aids)
## 
## Coefficients:
##                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)     3.86859    0.05004  77.311  < 2e-16 ***
## poly(date, 2)1  3.82934    0.25162  15.219 2.46e-11 ***
## poly(date, 2)2 -0.68335    0.19716  -3.466  0.00295 ** 
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for quasipoisson family taken to be 1.657309)
## 
##     Null deviance: 677.264  on 19  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:  31.992  on 17  degrees of freedom
## AIC: NA
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4

anova(g1,g2,test="F") ## for quasi-models specifically

## Analysis of Deviance Table
## 
## Model 1: cases ~ date
## Model 2: cases ~ poly(date, 2)
##   Resid. Df Resid. Dev Df Deviance      F   Pr(>F)   
## 1        18     53.020                               
## 2        17     31.992  1   21.028 12.688 0.002399 **
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1